Damn, I'm on a roll.


On July 17, I made the unsurprising observation that the US would invade Iraq regardless of world opinion. That view was echoed by the Spectator. Tim Blair noted the Spectator item on his blog on July 19, but the item itself is dated July 20. On July 19 I congratulated the Spectator for agreeing with me. In doing so, I said I thought that Bush would start the war against Iraq in time to have an effect on the November elections. Now Ha'aretz has picked up the story, in a piece dated July 20.


"The U.S. operation to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein will take place in the coming months, even before November's Congressional elections, according to high-level sources in the French government following talks with American decision-makers and professionals in Washington."


Via BOTW (Third item)


Bet you didn't know that I was so well connected with high level sources in the French government or with American decision-makers and professionals in Washington. It's a safe bet. Even I didn't know I was that connected.


In more important developments, Radley Balko's TCS column seems to be coming true.

 
Me, July 17, 2002:



"We're coming, Saddam. With or without anyone else, we are coming. We are coming for you, this time. There will be no deals. There will be no games with weapons inspectors. We won't stop because Kofi Annan has a conniption at the UN. We won't stop because massive casualties in the Republican Guard will look bad on TV. We won't stop when (not if) you start dropping Scuds on Israel. We will stop only when we get to Baghdad or in the extremely unlikely event that you can stop us before that.



"... We won't stop even if there are riots in the streets in every capital of Europe and the Middle East.".



The Spectator, July 20, 2002:



"This is one of the least guileful Presidents in American history; what he says, he means. When he announced that the US would deal with al-Qa’eda in Afghanistan and then move on to Iraq, that was what he intended to do... Mr Bush’s phase two is now beginning.



"The Americans will not be deflected by the absence of support from continental Europe. A few months ago, William Hague asked George Bush how he would deal with European objections to ballistic missile defence. ‘I’ve got a secret plan,’ Mr Bush replied. ‘What is it?’ ‘I’ll go ahead anyway.’ So he will on Iraq."



Via Tim Blayah, intrepid Ozblogger.



So, do I have a wider audience than I thought?



Nah. Common sense is still common sense, even if it isn't very common. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that Iraq is toast. The more interesting speculation concerns not whether we will go into Saddam's oil soaked fantasy land, but when and how.



The how part I leave to the people we pay to knock heads and break things. They have been doing a real good job so far, as indicated by the fact that the only political criticism now being voiced about the Afghan war is that the Secretary of the Army used to work for Enron.



As to when, I've heard everything from "soon" to "at a time calculated to effect the 2004 Presidential election." My money is on "soon" for two reasons, one blatantly political and the other practical. Waiting for the 2004 election risks losing domestic support for the wider war on terror because of interim events, so the invasion is unlikely to be postponed that long. Since Bush clearly intends to invade Iraq anyway, I assume that he will try to use the timing of the invasion to his advantage. Certainly there is no reason he should not do so. Therefore, I think the timing of an invasion will be used to effect an election, but not the 2004 Presidential contest. This year's midterm elections are also important to Bush, with the Senate evenly split and the Democrats attempting to use the accounting scandals to take back the House.



Frankly, if the only political affect of an October invasion is to get rid of Cynthia McKinney, it will be worth it.

 
Mickey Lives!



“Temmuz (July Revolution) returns to say to all evil tyrants and oppressors of the world: You will never defeat me this time. Never!"


So says Saddam. Guess its time to pack up and go home, since we can never defeat him (this time). We'll have to wait for the next time.



You've got to wonder why the man continues to come up with this blustery nonsense. We don't believe him. The EUniks don't believe him. His putative Russian allies don't believe him. The Arabs don't believe him. Not that it matters to him, but his own "constituents" don't believe him.



Who does he think he's playing to? The Guardian? To paraphrase someone or other, "How many divisions can the Guardian put in the field?" Yes, that statement was famously wrong in that it failed to take into account the effect on public opinon of whoever it was aimed at. And yes, the Guardian can have an effect on public opinion. Outside the US. But since it looks like we are going to give Saddam the boot (because it is in our interest to do so) regardless of public opinion outside the US, the effect of the Guardian on public opinion is irrelevant.



Witihin the US, it appears that we are remarkably united on the necessity of ridding the world of Saddam. 70% in favor is the most recent result, as I recall. Excuse me while I fact check my own ass.



OK, I'm back. I was wrong. It's 73%. There aren't many occasions where 73% of Americans agree on anything, much less a major foreign policy initiative.



We're coming, Saddam. With or without anyone else, we are coming. We are coming for you, this time. There will be no deals. There will be no games with weapons inspectors. We won't stop because Kofi Annan has a conniption at the UN. We won't stop because massive casualties in the Republican Guard will look bad on TV. We won't stop when (not if) you start dropping Scuds on Israel. We will stop only when we get to Baghdad or in the extremely unlikely event that you can stop us before that.



You want bluster? OK. We won't stop even if there are riots in the streets in every capital of Europe and the Middle East.



M-I-C See you real soon. K-E-Y Why? Because you threaten us. M-O-U-S-E