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Friday, September 24, 2004

I started to write a longish post about Kerry's contradictory statements on Iraq throughout the course of the campaign, only to find, via VodkaPundit, that John Hawkins did a far better job. And he has art!

Kerry obtained the Democratic nomination almost entirely on the basis that he was "electable." I think the Democrats should get their money back. Having tried to become all things to all people, electable may well be the one thing Kerry isn't.

The effect of the "weathervane" (sorry, no direct link, go here and scroll down) and "blowin' in the wind" ads now airing will show up in the polls in the next week or so, and I think Kerry will be seriously wounded. That leaves only the debates as a means for Kerry to improve his standing. There is no doubt that Kerry is a good debater. But is he good enough to withstand a recitation of the quotes in the linked article? I doubt it.

There has also been some speculation about outside events (such as a major terrorist attack somewhere) affecting the election. Well, there have been major terrorist attacks, both in Iraq (in terms of sheer volume) and Russia (in terms of gut wrenching horror). Events like those are wildcards. Their effect is unpredictable. So far, however, none seem to have derailed Bush or aided Kerry.
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