WORTH EVERY PENNY

Senator Kerry has a problem. The problem is the "Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party" (also known as the Deaniacs).

Fritz Schrank, a Delaware lawyer/blogger, has been solicited by Kerry for a campaign contribution. The solicitation itself is a scream, and Fritz does a fine job of fisking it, noting the complete absence of any reason to vote for Kerry, as opposed to against Bush. I especially like the part where Kerry declares that when (not if) he wins, we will look back on this moment as the turning point. If you're already assured of winning, Senator, why solicit additional funds?

I must say, though, that Kerry is, once again, confusing me with his tactics on the war in Iraq.

He was for the war and against it.

He was against paying for it, but he was for paying for it before he was against paying for it.

We didn't send enough troops, so we should bring the troops who are there home, within four years. No, wait: one year. No, starting in six months.

Kerry's statements that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction were completely accurate, but Bush lied about them and misled is into war.

But it doesn't matter that Bush misled us into war because Kerry would have gone to war regardless of whether or not he thought he would find WMDs.

Britain, Australia, Spain, El Salvador, Poland and the umpteen other countries that contributed to the Iraq effort were a coalition of the bribed and coerced. The only way to avoid having a coalition of the bribed and coerced, apparently, is to bribe and coerce France and/or Germany.

This week, we are back to the BUSH LIED!!!!! PEOPLE DIED!!!!!!! theme. Forget the fact that the CIA and every other US intelligence agency thought Saddam had WMDs. Forget the fact that literally every intelligence service in the West thought Saddam had WMDs. Hell, we should (please!) forget that even Kerry thought so, too. Bush knew differently and if he didn't contradict the overwhelming weight of the intelligence assessments from around the world, its only because he is either a liar or a complete moron.

Oh, wait. That would make Kerry a liar or moron, too. Sorry. I take that back. Until next week.

Some free advice for the Senator:

Howard Dean lost the primaries. He is not the candidate. You are. The Deaniacs are not going to vote for Bush. They're going to vote for Nader or for you. I think you're going to lose this election, even if you get the Deaniac vote, but I'm a convinced Bush supporter. Mine is not the vote you're looking for, because you won't get it. This race, as far as you are concerned, is now between you and Nader. Your only chance is to convince enough Deaniacs that you have a shot at winning.

Your party overwhelmingly nominated you because they thought that you could win. The downside to having obtained the nomination solely on "electability" is that a significant portion of the people who nominated you will vote for Nader if they believe going into the election that you will lose. To them, it's about winning the election. It's not about Iraq anymore, if ever it was.

Your position on the war is irrelevant to the Deaniacs. It is sufficient for them that you are not Bush. You are losing them now not because of your position(s) on the war, but because you are trailing in the polls. The way to get them back is not to adopt their positions, since that will put you farther behind in the polls and thus cause further defections to Nader among the Deaniacs. The way to get them back is to do better in the polls.

I acknowledge that this is a question of which came first, the chicken or the egg. It's a conundrum. You can't do better with the voters until you do better in the polls, which are, of course, a measurement of how you're doing with the voters.

I'm not sure how to go about improving your position in the polls, but I know that shifting leftwards on the war in Iraq won't do it. I know that your consistent inconsistency on the war won't do it, either. I suspect that you have to decide what your true beliefs are (besides the obvious one that you should be the President), state them clearly and repeatedly and hope for the best.

Of course, if you really are the anti-war candidate, that might mean alienating a (perhaps small but) significant chunk of your party, represented by Zell Miller. And that would put Bush over the top, if he isn't there already.

Hey, I said the advice was free. Not that it would be, you know, useful.