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Tuesday, March 01, 2005

I've been gone a long time. Bad karma in December. No real excuses since then.

Anyway. I guess I'm back.

I started to comment on Martin Devon's site about his (very early) speculation on the Republican presidential candidate in 2008. But the comment got too long and I figured I would put it here.

Rudy Giuliani was a damn good mayor prior to 9/11. He was elected and reelected in a heavily Democratic city. He undid most of the damage to the City done by prior administrations by controlling crime. But during and after 9/11, he was nothing less than magnificent. And when I heard that he had returned that $10 mil gift from the Saudis, I vowed to vote for him for any office, up to and including God.

I hope he runs. I'll vote for him, gun control warts and all.

Martin likes Condoleeza Rice. So do I. If Cheney resigns (presumably for health reasons) and she is appointed as Veep, then she'll have the inside track for the nomination in 2008. Even without being appointed as VP, Condi would make an excellent opponent for Hillary.

But a Rice nomination would not be good news for Giuliani. He would make a good choice for her running mate from an electoral college point of view (since he would have a real shot at swinging New York into the red column) but I think that he would make a terrible Vice President. It seems to me that he has a personality that requires that he be fully in charge in order to function well.

Additionally, the calendar presents Giuliani with a problem if he were offered the second spot by the Republicans, regardless of who leads the ticket. He is 60 now. He will be 63 in 2008. That is certainly not too old to be President. But if he were nominated as VP in 2008, then, assuming a win in 2008, he has to look all the way out to 2016 for a shot at the top spot. At that point, he will be 71. Reagan notwithstanding, that's a bit long in the tooth for a President.

So my guess is that Giuliani would turn down an offer to be the nominee for VP in order to wait and see whether a run in 2012 might be possible.
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